Wednesday, 2 March 2016

Some Super Tuesday 2016 analysis

Yesterday was Super Tuesday in the United States, the day on which the greatest number of state primaries and caucuses are held. I have some analysis to share.

On the Democratic side, last night's results guaranteed that the contest there will remain for now. While the media, pundits, etc., had all predicted that Bernie Sanders would only win Vermont, his own state, he secured decisive victories in Colorado, Minnesota and even Oklahoma in addition to Vermont, while conceding a minor loss in Massachusetts. Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly won the Deep South and Texas but those victories were expected and states friendlier to Sanders are on the way, as proved by his Oklahoma win; however, Clinton did expand her delegate lead.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won the majority of the contests while Ted Cruz won two and Marco Rubio won one. Establishment Republicans are opposed to the candidacies of Trump and Cruz, as they believe that if either one of them is their party's nominee, they will lose the main election by enormous margins and destroy the Republican majority in Congress; however, Rubio's win last night is his first so far and he is third in both vote and delegate count overall. The Republican establishment wants Rubio as the candidate but Republican voters appear to be saying otherwise. John Kasich had some respectable percentages but failed to win anything and Ben Carson appears to be exiting the race; barring something drastic, Kasich's chances of winning the nomination are unlikely at best.

Both Clinton and Trump are closer to becoming their parties' respective nominees thanks to Super Tuesday but keys wins by their nearest adversaries in the primaries ensure that the competitions continue.

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